My unfiltered, very high level note this morning pre-open to those who give a S*:
1. Technicals: Tape remains VERY bullish on higher timeframe (TF) (Weekly + Monthly). The Trillion dollar question is always which TF prevails and how far a correction can go. I think the 5 W (week) SMA (moving average) will hold. But a push to the 5 M (month) SMA (maximum potential pullback - Monthly POWER BUY) would not change my bullish POV. I'd actually be more aggressive long from a value perspective as bears would think the reversal is in.
2. I believe we are in a VALUE EXTENTION (market profile) to new ATHs (all time highs) and the next 2 weeks will basically either confirm or invalidate my thesis - remember VALUE EXTENSIONS are usually ***FAST & FURIOUS*** - 10%-20%+ potential UPSIDE on US EQ (equities);
3. Pre-FOMC warrants a back to the mean, consolidation type of market action imo - highlighted by the weekly BALANCE we formed last week on NQ. The mean is the GAP area.
4. Last week GAP is in play (i.e. close) within the next 2 weeks imo.
The only surprise that can come out of FOMC next week is a RATE CUT. Nothing else. The FED is getting concerned with a slowdown in the labour market. And let's not forget it's a F* ELECTION YEAR !
5.Crypto is on the verge on an upside BO (breakout) leading to a new leg up, imo.
6.Odds of DEMS winning the elections at this point are slim to none imo.
There will be lots of excitement with a new candidate but the most notable flip in voters sentiment seems to be coming from the business community (WallStreet, Silicon Valley, dude they have deep reach and deep pockets) switching to GOP with the nomination of JD Vance. I'd expect a bunch of participants to front run a GOP win with its VERY PRO market rhetoric and promises.
7.Guess who else has deep pockets: China and Russia and they want a TRUMP landslide. And Zuck is a business aficionado so he will gladly take their $$$, and TikTok well you know who is the beneficial owner, and twitter is owned by Trump's new best friend ...
Those who sleep at the wheel always crash. Good luck!
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